China+1 – Manufacturing moving from China to India, led by electronics such as iPhones.
- $21bn iPhone exports, FY26 (from near zero in FY22)
- $29.4bn smartphone exports FY26 (India’s largest branded export)
- 25–30% of global iPhone output (up from 18% two years earlier)
- 250,000 employed in Apple’s chain (>70% women at the largest plants)
In September 2025, for the first time, every model in a new iPhone line-up shipped from India on launch day, at the same time as everywhere else.
iPhone exports went from virtually nothing in FY22 to ₹2 trillion in FY26, India’s single largest branded export. Its share of global iPhone output has climbed toward 25–30% from 18% two years earlier.
Semiconductors are the slower, larger bet: twelve to thirteen approved projects across six states and more than $20bn committed. Nobody serious treats India as a replacement for China, only as a growing share of a more spread-out supply map.
The signal to watch: The PLI successor scheme. Export-linked or not tells you whether India is buying factories or building them.
Where we would take your group
- An electronics assembly floor. Where the incentive money went, and what it bought.
- A supplier park outside the fence. Component depth is the constraint. Here it is visible.
- A state investment agency. Six states competing for the same fab.
Questions for the debrief
- India’s labour costs run 30–40% below Vietnam’s, but its logistics and tax complexity erode that gap. Build the decision matrix a manufacturer would actually use.
- The mobile PLI scheme expired in March 2026. What happens to a location advantage that was created by subsidy when the subsidy ends?
- A threatened 25% US tariff on India-assembled iPhones made factory geography a diplomatic variable. How should a board price political risk it cannot hedge?
